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Episode 1432: The High-Pressure Promise
Date September 18, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the return of Luis Severino and the Yankees’ prospective playoff roster, how teams will use their pitchers in the playoffs, a Sonny Gray fun fact that sort of checks out, Yu Darvish’s strikeout spree, and an extremely long September game, discuss the arrest of Felipe Vázquez, and answer listener emails about Mookie Betts and Mike Trout, when today’s baseball will start to seem dated, how long it takes bad teams to restore their reputations, and the audacity of promising to hit home runs. Topics * Mookie Betts' future * When will today's baseball not look 'real'? * How long it takes to change franchise perception * Players making home run promises Intro Gregory Alan Isakov, "San Luis" Outro Sturgill Simpson, "The Promise" Banter * Meg is leaving soon for a trip to the Arizona Fall League. * Ben saw Luis Severino's 2019 debut at a reunion of his intern class from when he worked with the Yankees. * Players returning to the Yankees and their potential playoff roster * Sonny Gray recorded his 32nd consecutive start with 6 hits or fewer, setting a new MLB record (and passing Nolan Ryan). * Yu Darvish set a Cubs record by striking out 8 hitters in a row. * Milwaukee Brewers and the NL Central/Wild Card chase * The Red Sox and Giants played a game that used 48 players including 24 pitchers. * Felipe Vasquez's arrest Email Questions * Stefan: "I have this theory I have been floating around which is that, if Mike Trout didn't exist, Mookie Betts would be the beneficiary of the kind of "impressive early career" attention that Trout is otherwise receiving. However, because he's in Trout's shadow (and maybe because so much of his value comes from fielding), I don't see nearly as much attention to his early career WAR accumulation as I'd expect. I see that he's 17th in career WAR through his current age since integration on fangraphs. I don't have the ability to query for this on BREF, but I know they are even more favorable on his WAR thus far. This is impressive! But it's also a little bit less impressive when you look at other names around him, like Andruw Jones and Cesar Cedeño and Grady Sizemore, who did not keep up their top-20-esque careers and fell off from their early career performance. I remember the Andruw Jones home-run-king hype so I don't want to fall into a similar trap with Mookie Betts, but do you see his early career performance as more likely to fall into the Jones and Sizemore camp, or more likely to fall into the camp of other hall-of-famers with great early careers? I am leaning towards thinking he'll fall off, since so much of his value in WAR comes from incredible defense and that won't sustain into his thirties, but I want to believe that I'm watching another no-doubter-first-ballot-hall-of-famer in his prime." * Jake: "I was thinking about Sam’s whole baseball time machine and thinking about the baseball my kid will be watching, which got me thinking about how you all talk about fake baseball. I know fake baseball was the late 19th early 20th century, I don’t always know what the time frame is, but when you talk about inventing the single motion catch and throw I know that it applies. My question is, what will my kid think was fake baseball when he gets older...or when will the baseball we’re currently watching be considered fake baseball, and does that differ from when the early 2000s?" * Dan: "I am currently a graduate student at Ohio University and this morning, my professor said something I found quite thought provoking. We were talking about the building of PETCO Park, since it's a class about facility and event management, when my professor segued by saying, "Nobody cares about the San Diego Padres, except for Padres fans." This sort of threw me back a little bit, simply because I immediately thought about Fernando Tatis Jr, Manny Machado, Chris Paddack, Manuel Margot, and others and how exciting their team projects to be in the future. This made me ponder the question of how long does it take for a franchise that has struggled mightily for such a long time (having last made the playoffs in 2006) to return to respectability in the minds of the average baseball fan? I say the average baseball fan because it seems as though the listeners of your show and people who pay very close attention to baseball find the Padres incredibly fascinating (mainly because of how we project the careers of their young players to turn out)." * Ben: "I've just read about Aaron Judge promising a fan a home run and then going out and hitting a home run. Last month it was Mookie Betts. A very quick google search shows Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz and Sal Perez doing the same over the last few years. I think we deserve a story with a home run promise that does NOT end with a home run. This clearly happens many times for every time that a player does deliver on the promise, yet we the fans are kept in the dark. As inside-ish media people, are you aware of any home run promises that were not kept and therefore not made into stories?" Notes * During Nolan Ryan's career hitters had a .265 BABIP against him. * From 2014 to 2019 Mike Trout has been worth 52.4 fWAR. Mookie Betts has been worth 36.8. * Meg suggests that the switch to a robotic strike zone will fundamentally change how baseball looks. Ben suggests that medical advancements would also have a significant impact. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1432: The High-Pressure Promise * Luis Severino's Electrifying Return Bolsters Yankees Rotation by Jay Jaffe * The Yankees Will Play by Their Own Pitching Rules in October by Tom Verducci * Gray passes Nolan Ryan for MLB record Russell Dorsey * Darvish sets K's record; Cubs lose WC lead by Jordan Bastian * October Amplifies the Worst of Baseball-So Why Are the Games So Good? by Ben Lindbergh * Carl and Mike Yastrzemski home runs * We're Actually Watching the Best Baseball Players Ever by Ben Lindbergh * Paul O'Neill on Seinfeld * How Many Home Runs Are the Product of Magic? by Justin Klugh Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes